NASA has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4, which sparked concern in late 2024 over a potential Earth impact, is now being monitored for a possible collision with the Moon in 2032. While the odds remain low, the asteroid’s probability of impacting the Moon has increased slightly from 3.8% to 4.3%, based on refined trajectory data.
🪨 What Is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
- Type: Apollo-class Near-Earth Object (NEO)
- Size: Estimated 53–67 meters (roughly the height of a 10-storey building)
- Discovery: Late 2024
- Observed by: NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) – the smallest object JWST has tracked to date
- Current Location: Too distant to be visible by Earth-based telescopes
📅 Potential Moon Impact: December 22, 2032
Using data from JWST, scientists at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) have narrowed down the asteroid’s orbit with 20% greater precision. The projected flyby date of December 22, 2032, carries a slim chance of the asteroid striking the Moon — but no threat to Earth is currently predicted.
NASA emphasized that:
“Even if an impact occurs, it would not affect the Moon’s orbit or pose a threat to Earth.”
🔭 Astronomers Weigh In
Pawan Kumar, an astronomer and former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, echoed NASA’s calm assessment:
“The Moon is safe. Even if there’s a collision, the debris would pose no threat to Earth. Any fragments reaching near-Earth space would disintegrate in our atmosphere.”
🌍 Was 2024 YR4 Ever a Threat to Earth?
Yes — briefly. In late 2024, there were early concerns that YR4 might pose a small threat to Earth. But further observations ruled out any significant impact risk, shifting attention to its proximity to the Moon instead.
🔭 What Happens Next?
- Astronomers will continue monitoring the asteroid’s orbit through 2032
- Its orbital path around the Sun is being mapped with increasing precision
- The data offers valuable insights for future planetary defense research
📷 Webb’s Historic Observation
“The @ESA_Webb space telescope has spotted asteroid 2024 YR4!”
“Webb’s observations indicate that the asteroid measures roughly 60 m across, making it the smallest object targeted by Webb to date.”
— ESA Operations, April 2, 2025
This marks a milestone for the James Webb Space Telescope, showcasing its ability to detect and track even small moving objects deep in space.
🧠 Bottom Line
- ✅ No danger to Earth
- 🟡 Slight chance of Moon impact (4.3%)
- 🔭 Ongoing monitoring continues
- 🚀 Another example of growing global capability in planetary defense and early threat detection
Stay tuned — the next significant tracking update is expected closer to the mid-2030 window.
