Markets Tumble as RBI Rate Cut and Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

Indian equity markets opened sharply lower on Tuesday, tracking weak global cues amid escalating tariff tensions and reacting to the Reserve Bank of India’s dovish monetary policy announcement. The Sensex plunged 439.37 points or 0.59% to 73,787.71, while the Nifty 50 shed 158.55 points or 0.70% to 22,377.30 at 10:14 AM. Market breadth was heavily skewed towards bears, with 2,143 shares declining, 837 advancing, and 136 remaining unchanged. Sentiment soured further after the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in a unanimous move, cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00%, its second cut this year, and shifted its policy stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’. The central bank also downgraded the GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5%, from 6.7%, citing global economic headwinds and trade protectionism. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that inflation appears benign, with CPI inflation for FY26 now expected at 4.0%, down from 4.2% earlier. However, the policy actions, combined with the impact of 26% U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and ongoing global uncertainty, weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The market correction also comes on the day of Nifty’s weekly expiry, adding to volatility. Investors are expected to remain cautious amid concerns over the rupee’s stability, bond market reaction, and further signals from global central banks in response to rising trade tensions.

RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 6% for Second Straight Time, Shifts Policy Stance to ‘Accommodative’ Amid Global Trade Uncertainty

Mumbai, April 9, 2025 (Reuters): In a bid to support the slowing economy amid rising global trade tensions, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00% — the second consecutive cut this year — and changed its monetary policy stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’, indicating scope for further easing. The move comes on the heels of the U.S. imposing 26% tariffs on Indian imports, sparking fears of a broader global slowdown and posing fresh challenges for emerging markets. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, addressing a press conference in Mumbai, acknowledged that while growth is improving after a weak H1 FY2024-25, it still lags behind expectations. The central bank also revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025-26 down to 6.5% from 6.7% and cut its inflation estimate to 4.0%, citing a benign price outlook. The decision was unanimously supported by all six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Malhotra clarified that the ‘accommodative’ stance implies a focus solely on either maintaining rates or cutting them, without a direct link to liquidity conditions. With trade protectionism and potential currency wars posing risks, the rupee remains under pressure. The RBI warned that a 5% depreciation in the rupee from its current level (around ₹86/USD) could raise inflation by 35 basis points, even as it boosts GDP growth by 25 bps via exports. India’s 10-year bond yield slipped marginally to 6.50% post-announcement, while equity markets declined by 0.6%. The rupee, having already dropped 1.2% since the tariffs were announced, remains near record lows. Analysts from Capital Economics and ANZ Research anticipate further rate cuts, with expectations of the repo rate dropping to 5.50% by August 2025. Malhotra reiterated the RBI’s policy to manage “excess volatility” in the currency market, asserting that the central bank does not target a specific rupee level but remains ready to intervene when necessary.

Markets Rebound Strongly Ahead of RBI Policy Decision Amid Global Trade Tensions

Indian benchmark indices witnessed a sharp rebound on Tuesday, recovering from their steepest single-day fall in 10 months. The rally was driven by broad-based buying across sectors, following a U.S. tariff-induced selloff that had rattled investors in the previous session. In early trade, the BSE Sensex surged by 1,200 points and was trading 714 points higher or 0.96% at 73,852 around 10:25 am. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 advanced 240 points or 1.10% to 22,398. This recovery comes after Monday’s slump, where the Nifty fell by 3.2% and the Sensex dropped by 3%, compared to an 8.4% decline in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index. Investors are now closely watching the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming policy announcement scheduled for April 9, with expectations of a 25 basis points cut in the repo rate to support growth amid escalating global trade tensions. From the Sensex pack, Titan, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Axis Bank, and Tata Motors were among the top gainers, rising between 3–5%. Titan jumped 5% after reporting a strong 25% year-on-year growth in Q4 FY25, reflecting robust performance across key segments. On the sectoral front, the Nifty Consumer Durables index surged 3%, while Metal, Realty, and Financial Services indices gained over 2%. The broader markets also participated in the rally, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 opening 2% higher. Expert Take on Market Sentiment and Trade War Impact Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, highlighted that global market volatility is likely to persist due to ongoing trade tensions. He noted that while the trade war seems limited to the US and China for now, India is proactively engaging in talks for a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the US. He warned that the US recession risk has increased and China could be the worst affected if Trump’s proposed 50% additional tariffs are implemented, potentially stalling Chinese exports and depressing global metal prices due to product dumping. Despite this uncertainty, Vijayakumar believes India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable. With an expected GDP growth of around 6% in FY26 and attractive largecap valuations, long-term investors can consider gradually accumulating quality largecap stocks, particularly in financials. Global Markets Recover as Negotiation Hopes Rise Global equities saw a modest recovery as well. Asian stocks bounced from 1.5-year lows, buoyed by hopes of potential trade negotiations. Japan’s Nikkei led the recovery with a 5.6% surge, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.7% and Chinese blue-chip stocks edged up 0.6%. U.S. stock futures also pointed higher. However, U.S. President Donald Trump maintained a hard stance on China, threatening further tariffs unless Beijing withdrew its retaliatory measures. In response, China rejected the “blackmail” nature of U.S. threats. FII/DII Activity and Commodity Updates On April 8, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹9,040 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) countered the selling by purchasing ₹12,122 crore worth of stocks. Oil prices also rebounded, with Brent crude rising 1.26% to $65.02 per barrel and WTI crude climbing 1.52% to $61.61, after a steep decline in prior sessions triggered by fears of weaker demand due to tariffs. In currency markets, the Indian rupee slipped 0.06% to 85.88 against the U.S. dollar in early trade. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, declined 0.25% to 103.

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